Sleeping Beauty and the absent-minded driver

Abstract : The Sleeping Beauty problem is presented in a formalized framework which summarizes the underlying probability structure. The two rival solutions proposed by Elga (Analysis 60:143-147, 2000) and Lewis (Analysis 61:171-176, 2001) differ by a single parameter concerning her prior probability. They can be supported by considering, respectively, that Sleeping Beauty is "fuzzy-minded" and "blank-minded", the first interpretation being more natural than the second. The traditional absent-minded driver problem is reinterpreted in this framework and sustains Elga's solution.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 - 9:39:27 AM
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Jean Baratgin, Bernard Walliser. Sleeping Beauty and the absent-minded driver. Theory and Decision, Springer Verlag, 2010, 69 (3), pp.489-496. ⟨10.1007/s11238-010-9215-6⟩. ⟨halshs-00754429⟩

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