Sleeping Beauty and the absent-minded driver
Abstract
The Sleeping Beauty problem is presented in a formalized framework which summarizes the underlying probability structure. The two rival solutions proposed by Elga (Analysis 60:143-147, 2000) and Lewis (Analysis 61:171-176, 2001) differ by a single parameter concerning her prior probability. They can be supported by considering, respectively, that Sleeping Beauty is "fuzzy-minded" and "blank-minded", the first interpretation being more natural than the second. The traditional absent-minded driver problem is reinterpreted in this framework and sustains Elga's solution.