A Paradox of Thrift in General Equilibrium Without Forward Markets

Abstract : After 2008, the US personal saving rate had its strongest postwar jump, from 2% to 5%, and the investment ratio its sharpest fall from its postwar average of 16% to its lowest level of 12%. The coordination of saving and investment is analyzed here in a theoretical model of general equilibrium with rational expectations and no forward market. Shocks affect preferences for future consumption. A paradox of thrift is proven that formalizes an argument in the General Theory of Keynes but the equilibrium is a constrained Pareto optimum. Textbook fiscal policies are neutral at best, or inefficient.
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Article dans une revue
Journal of the European Economic Association, Wiley, 2012, 10 (6), pp.1015-1035. 〈10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01097.x〉
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Soumis le : mardi 20 novembre 2012 - 09:55:30
Dernière modification le : mardi 24 avril 2018 - 17:20:14

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Christophe Chamley. A Paradox of Thrift in General Equilibrium Without Forward Markets. Journal of the European Economic Association, Wiley, 2012, 10 (6), pp.1015-1035. 〈10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01097.x〉. 〈halshs-00754571〉

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